Elon is officially gunning for JD Rockefeller

In the the early 1900's JD Rockefeller amassed and grew a fortune worth $200M in 1902 to $1.5B+ in 1937.

As a proportion of GDP (24B in 1902, and 92B in 1937), this was roughly 1.5% of US GDP.

Elon Musk today was confirmed for a $55B pay package from Tesla, provided he meets certain goals.

Let's run through Elon's potential net worth, 10 years from now.


Tesla 2028: $650B market cap

Elon's share = 20% current, which will probably dilute by about 20% over time due to capital raises and employee awards = 16%

Elon's award = 12% * (.8 after taxes), then factor in 10% average dilution = 8.65%

So this results in roughly 25% ownership of a $650B pie = $162B


SpaceX was valued at $21.5B in late 2017 in a funding round.
Elon intends to do the following:
-launch a starlink network, to take a big chunk of the internet network, potentially worth ~30B as a standalone business in 10 years (look at the ISPs like Comcast, Verizon, AT&T etc)
-increase Falcon 9, Falcon Heavy and BFR flights revenue probably 10x from today (although this would slow, so the equity valuation doesn't grow by 10x since growth slows down as you get that big; so let's say equity valuation grows 5x for the existing rocket business alone, as they are also adding terrestrial flights etc).

This gives us a market cap of $130B in roughly 10 years, and Elon owns roughly 60% I believe, which gives us $78B


Then there are a number of commercial side ventures and investments:
-The Boring Company: tunneling and building infrastructure is a multibillion dollar industry, and they are actively seeking to build tunnels in Chicago and the DC Corridor.
This could quite easily become a $20B company in 10 years, given potential participation w/ Tesla.

-Neuralink: An active BMI (brain machine interface) initially targeted towards the healthcare space - let's value this, out of thin air, at $5B in 10 years, as it requires significant R&D. This is probably also his commercialization venture for OpenAI developments.

-OpenAI: This is a non profit, but probably a great source of information and talent. No value attributed here though

-Investments/Loans: Roughly speaking his personal side investments, assets, and loans against equity in his companies probably cancel each other out - his cash assets are probably a rounding error <100M (ha!)


So summing all that up,
Tesla = $162B
SpaceX = $78B
Boring Co = $20B
Neuralink = $5B

This gives us a total of $265B in 10 years.


Current US GDP is 18.5T, and assuming a 2% average growth rate for then next 10 years, you get 22.5T as projected GDP in 10 years.

$265B/22.5T = 1.17% of GDP.

This is already ahead of JDR's 1902 net worth of 200M/24B = .83% when he was 63.
Elon will be 57 in 10 years.


And this will continue to grow, given the industries he is in...and especially if Mars transport becomes reality.
So Elon is essentially building the new version of Oil and Railroads: Sustainable Energy and Space Transport - except he's owning a lot more verticals.


My suspicion is he's always been gunning for JDR.
Above the "Fuzzy Logic" book, there's a barely make-out-able biography of Alexander The Great, who Elon has referenced many times/been referenced as by his first wife. (Alexander was probably the wealthiest man in history, as a percentage of his empire's GDP)


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